Short-lived stock market trends in Vietnam fade after rapid rallies in oil and gas stocks

Vietnam's stock market has recently seen a sequence of short-term trends that have pulled money in and out—starting with a rally in private-sector companies, followed by a wave of state-owned enterprises, and most recently a surge in the oil and gas sector. Each phase attracted investors with expectations of quick profits, but when the momentum reversed, the cost was not only financial losses but also psychological pressure from hasty decisions.

Oil and gas rally lifts prices sharply

Only a few weeks earlier, the oil and gas stock group became a market phenomenon, posting strong gains. At the peak, BSR rose 130% from the start of 2026, OIL increased 108%, and PLX, PVC and PVO gained more than 70%. GAS rose more than 50%.

The rally was linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict, which pushed oil prices higher. In addition, some stocks were supported by expectations of policies related to state-owned enterprises, especially those connected to PVN.

Momentum fades and losses widen

The strong rally did not last. After about three weeks, many stocks in the group turned sharply lower, nearly erasing the earlier gains. Within a single week of adjustment, many tickers fell 30% to 50% from their short-term highs, triggering broad losses among investors who had chased the rally.

A recurring “tree” pattern across market cycles

This dynamic is not unique. Over the past year, the market has repeated a similar cycle: early 2025 saw a wave of private-sector stocks, the year-end period shifted momentum toward state-owned enterprises, and more recently the focus moved to oil and gas stocks.

The common thread is that these groups often surge by double-digit percentages in a short period after positive information emerges—such as government stimulus or energy prices rising due to the Iran conflict—before quickly declining. The result is a pattern often described as a “tree” shape in price movements.

Speculation skews cash flows toward short-term stories

In practice, cash flows are increasingly skewed toward short-term speculation, with investors chasing stock groups that offer attractive short-term narratives even when underlying business profitability remains uncertain. When expectations rise too quickly, a pause in the narrative can prompt profit-taking pressure, pulling prices down.

Risk warnings focus on “buying at the top”

During these rallies, warnings about the risk of “buying at the top” are common, along with doubts about who truly benefits from the developments. In the oil and gas sector, for example, some domestic firms may not benefit directly to the extent investors expect, yet prices still surged due to speculation.

Key risk: investor behavior, not only external news

More importantly, the biggest risk highlighted in such cycles comes less from external information and more from investor behavior. Chasing trends reflects a short-term speculative mindset that can override fundamentals.

Takeaway for investors

The stock market has never been an easy path to wealth. What rises quickly can fall just as fast, and stocks once viewed as opportunities can become a persistent source of pain for holders. For investors, the lesson is not new but difficult to apply: maintain discipline and avoid chasing trend-driven waves.