DBC - Growth Amid Volatility (Part 1)

The Vietnamese pig farming industry is supported by a large, steady demand base, but it remains highly volatile due to price cycles and disease risks. As smallholder farming shrinks and large enterprises play a bigger role, companies with stronger control over the value chain are better positioned to manage costs and stabilize production. Dabaco Vietnam Group Joint Stock Company (HOSE: DBC) highlights its competitive advantage through its closed-value chain model 3F+ (Feed - Farm - Food & Future), aimed at improving cost control and leveraging opportunities across the sector cycle.

Pig farming: A large demand base but volatile dynamics

Pig farming remains central to Vietnam’s livestock sector, both in production scale and in consumer demand. According to the 2025 Domestic Market Report by the Domestic Market Management Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), Vietnam ranks among the world’s largest pork-consuming markets, fourth globally and leading in Southeast Asia. Average pork consumption is around 39 kg per person per year, and pork accounts for about 64% of total animal protein consumption.

With a population exceeding 100 million, demand for pork is expected to remain stable over the long term, providing a foundation for industry growth. In 2025, the national pig herd reached about 26.68 million head (about 31.4 million including piglets), up 0.6% year on year. Live hog meat output at slaughter was about 5.4 million tons, up 3.9%.

Despite growth in herd size and output, volatility has increased. In the first half of 2025, pig farming activity progressed relatively smoothly as disease was controlled and selling prices were favorable. However, from Q3 2025, African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks spread widely, leading to significant herd reductions in many provinces and substantial losses for farmers, particularly smallholders.

This also translated into greater price volatility. Live hog prices sometimes fell below VND 50,000 per kg before rebounding, reflecting the sector’s sensitivity to supply-demand shocks and disease developments.

Restructuring: Smallholders shrink, large enterprises assume greater roles

The industry is shifting toward different farming models. With rising biosafety and disease-control requirements, household farming faces limitations in scale, capital, and resilience to price swings. Meanwhile, farm-and-industrial models have accounted for about 55-56% of cattle and 56-58% of poultry, indicating a growing concentration trend.

In 2025, many smallholders were forced to downsize or exit the market after periods of losses and disease impact. At the same time, corporate and large-scale farming sectors maintained more stable production, supporting overall output growth. This shift reflects not only short-term adjustments but also a longer-term trend toward supply concentration among firms capable of managing the value chain.

3F+: A value-chain platform that helps DBC leverage cycles and raise growth quality

In this environment, Dabaco Vietnam Group Joint Stock Company continues to post positive results by operating a closed value-chain model 3F (Feed - Farm - Food). This structure helps the company secure inputs and outputs, control costs, and stabilize production despite market volatility.

DBC is also moving beyond the traditional 3F model toward 3F+, where the “plus” represents “Future - Green Future.” The company’s stated direction is to improve resource efficiency and risk management, while building a foundation for long-term growth aligned with sustainable development standards as the industry evolves.

Financial performance and outlook

In 2025, DBC recorded after-tax profit of VND 1,507 billion, nearly double the previous year and the highest level in its operating history, although Q4 results faced pressure due to a sharp drop in live hog prices.

For the next period, DBC plans to continue investing in large-scale farm systems, feed production, and vaccine development to complete the integrated value chain. The company expects this expansion to support scale growth and reduce dependence on hog market price swings, with the goal of achieving more stable profits over the long run.

Author: Vietstock Enterprise Analysis Team, Vietstock Advisory