Large capital inflows expected to enter the market as FTSE review approaches; SSI Research names 30 stocks attracting the most funds.

Next week, Vietnam’s stock market is expected to receive a key signal from FTSE Russell’s mid-year review, scheduled for the morning of 8 April 2026. The update is viewed as an important checkpoint in Vietnam’s upgrade process.

FTSE mid-year review and potential upgrade timeline

In a recent SSI Research report, Vietnam is assessed as still on track to be upgraded to FTSE Russell’s emerging market standard in 2026. SSI Research estimates passive fund inflows from global ETFs at about $1.67 billion.

If the review is approved, the market could start attracting funds from passive index providers from September 2026.

Where inflows may go: large-cap focus

SSI Research expects money from funds tracking emerging markets to concentrate on large-cap stocks with high free float and good liquidity.

Among the forecast beneficiaries, VIC is projected to attract about $414 million, far ahead of the rest. The next group includes HPG with about $147 million, while VHM and FPT are also expected to draw around $92 million and $90 million, respectively.

Other large-cap names such as MSN, SSI, and VNM are also expected to receive significant capital, which SSI Research says could provide a “backbone” for the market if the upgrade scenario materializes.

Capital deployment pace and market absorption

SSI Research notes that the inflows are unlikely to be deployed all at once. Instead, they are expected to be allocated in stages over three to five quarters, similar to the approach seen in Saudi Arabia in 2019.

This staged allocation is expected to help the market absorb capital more effectively, limit short-term volatility, and create room for medium-term growth after the upgrade.

Market infrastructure reforms aligned with MSCI criteria

Alongside the upgrade process, reforms in market infrastructure and operations are being accelerated. These include removing the pre-trade margin requirement, raising disclosure standards, loosening foreign ownership limits, and advancing the central counterparty (CCP) mechanism.

SSI Research links these steps—together with the KRX trading system and recent legal changes—to efforts to align Vietnam’s stock market with MSCI criteria, particularly in transparency, access, and operational efficiency for foreign institutional investors.

Recent market performance and near-term caution

In early 2026, the market has shown positive growth and quickly approached the 1,920-point base level after two months. However, profit-taking pressure increased in March due to concerns that domestic interest rates might rise and amid global geopolitical uncertainties, making the near-term trend more cautious.

Medium-term support: growth, FX stability, and alternative channels

For the medium term, SSI Research expects support from structural and cyclical drivers, including a double-digit GDP growth target and large-scale infrastructure investment. The report says this should provide short-term stimulus and support long-run productivity.

It also expects exchange-rate pressure to ease as the VND–USD gap narrows, creating more room for monetary policy stability.

Additionally, the market’s relative attractiveness could improve if other investment channels—such as real estate, gold, or crypto—slow down or face tighter regulation, potentially drawing domestic capital back into equities.

Upcoming IPOs

Upcoming IPOs including Highlands Coffee, CP Vietnam, Dienmayxanh, HDBS, and LPBS are expected to add quality supply, diversify investment opportunities, and deepen the market.

Outlook

Overall, while near-term volatility remains possible, SSI Research maintains that the medium- and long-term outlook is positive. The FTSE upgrade process is positioned as a key catalyst for capital inflows and valuation support.