MASVN: Evidence Suggests VN-Index Has Formed a Bottom

Although markets remain volatile amid headlines related to “Trump,” Mirae Asset says Vietnam’s structural growth drivers are still developing as expected.

Cause: U.S. rate moves and signals of negotiation

Mirae Asset points to a similarity with April 2025, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield first surpassed 4.3%. On March 23, Trump announced the suspension of airstrikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Before the decline triggered by that announcement, the 10-year yield reached its highest level since July 2025.

The research team says markets often form a bottom when uncertainty peaks and signals shift from “climbing” to “negotiation.” It cites alignment between the market reaction to the March 23 announcement and the mid-April 2025 period, when Trump announced a 90-day pause to negotiate tariffs.

Development: Possible bottom despite continued volatility

Mirae Asset concludes: “There is basis to suppose the market may have formed a bottom even though later the market continued to be volatile due to subsequent announcements.”

It also outlines reasons for war “cooling” over the next 4–5 weeks, including the approach of U.S. midterm elections in November and U.S. labor market data showing a cooling trend. “To avoid the inflation trap,” MASVN assesses that easing the conflict could help reduce persistent inflation pressures that might otherwise prevent the Federal Reserve from delaying rate cuts.

Data/Stats: Vietnam’s growth pillars and reform drivers

1) Bold 2026 growth target and policy resolve. Mirae Asset says the government remains committed to a 2026 growth target of 10%, even though Q1 results were below the goal (7.83% versus 9.1%). It highlights plans to expand both fiscal and monetary policy and implement specialized policies to develop three economic blocks: State–Private–FDI.

2) Infrastructure “supercycle.” Public investment for 2026–2030 could reach 8.22 quadrillion dong, up 158% versus 2021–2025. The public investment share of total investment in 2026–2030 is projected at 20–22%, compared with about 17.8% in 2021–2025. National-scale projects, such as North–South high-speed rail with a total size up to 1.7 quadrillion dong, are expected to create long-term momentum. The report also notes that a new PPP legal framework is intended to mobilize private investment and reduce budget pressure while improving execution efficiency.

3) Attracting FDI. Vietnam aims for registered capital of USD 40–60 billion annually in 2026–2030 (versus USD 38.4 billion in 2025) and disbursement of USD 30–40 billion (versus USD 27.6 billion in 2025). Mirae Asset says geopolitical risks are pushing multinationals to diversify production through reshoring, nearshoring, and supply-chain diversification, creating longer-term opportunities for economies positioned as replacement production hubs. Vietnam also targets placing its investment environment in the top 3 in ASEAN and top 30 globally by 2028, and raising domestic content to over 40% by 2030.

4) Stimulating consumption. To move out of the middle-income trap, Vietnam targets average income per capita to rise from USD 5,026 in 2025 to USD 8,500 by 2030, making consumption a key growth driver. The report cites plans to modernize the retail ecosystem, promote domestic content, and support household purchasing power. It also points to policy measures to boost growth and a recovering real estate market. A tax reform reducing personal income tax allowances by about 41% in 2026 is expected to improve purchasing power of the middle class. Vietnam’s 2026 retail sales growth target is 13–15% (versus 9.2% in 2025), with average growth of 14–15% per year for 2026–2030.

Impact: Stock valuations and market recovery signals

Mirae Asset notes signs of market recovery. On March 23, the VN-Index rebounded after the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reached the long-term average minus one standard deviation (about 14.4x). The research team expects the current growth momentum to persist, with P/E at 16x still attractive relative to the long-term average of 17x.

Historical comparison with April 2025

Mirae Asset says market dynamics resemble those in April 2025. After the tariff-related announcement on April 2, 2025, a one-week drop (2–8 April 2025) reduced P/E from 14.8x to 12.3x, before a rebound to 17.3x.

Analysis: Outlook for 2026 earnings growth

Mirae Asset says Vietnam is positioned to benefit from domestic growth drivers while balancing rising external risks. It therefore maintains its 2026 profit-growth forecast for listed companies at 20%, with the pace likely to be refined during the AGM season as corporate plans are updated.