Vietnam Maintains Energy Security Amid Global Oil-Price Volatility

Under the direction of the Party and the State, Vietnam has maintained a multi-tier, flexible stabilization strategy for energy security, with the leadership of the Party and Government and the coordinated efforts of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and other ministries. The policy framework was set early, with General Secretary Tô Lâm signing Resolution 70-NQ/TW on September 3, 2025, defining ensuring national energy security as a foundation and requiring energy to lead the way. As the risk of a global energy crisis rose in Q1 2026, the Politburo issued Conclusion 14-KL/TW on March 20, 2026, stressing the need to guarantee fuel supply in all scenarios and to avoid interruptions to the supply chain.

Policy directives and government implementation

In response, the Government and Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính implemented a series of measures. Resolution 36/NQ-CP dated March 6, 2026 granted the Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group (Petrovietnam) greater autonomy in crude oil procurement, import/export activities, and price adjustments, and established a flexible price-adjustment mechanism. On March 19, 2026, Resolution 55/NQ-CP further improved the price-management framework for gasoline and oil in line with market fluctuations.

Directive 22/CĐ-TTg dated March 11, 2026 emphasized the imperative of preventing supply disruptions. Decision 385/QĐ-TTg dated March 4, 2026 established a Task Force for energy security and created an inter-agency coordination mechanism for crisis response. The Government also directed the establishment of the National Center for Refining and Energy at Dung Quat.

Operational measures by the Ministry of Industry and Trade

Following Party and Government directives, the Ministry of Industry and Trade moved quickly to operationalize practical tools, including direct leadership and decisive actions by Acting Minister Lê Mạnh Hùng. The ministry issued Directive 06/CT-BCT to ensure supply and prevent distribution interruptions, Directive 03/CT-BCT requiring 24/7 market surveillance, and Circular 15/CĐ-BCT requiring trading entities to comply with import limits to avoid local shortages.

Acting Minister Lê Mạnh Hùng engaged directly with refineries (Nghi Sơn, Bình Sơn), Petrovietnam, and other key suppliers to build contingency scenarios, regulate supply, diversify imports, and maintain high yet safe production levels. Market monitoring and anti-hoarding measures were strengthened to curb speculation.

Fuel Stabilization Fund and fiscal support

To cushion shocks to the fuel market, the Fuel Stabilization Fund was activated nine times within one month by the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance, totaling about 5.3 trillion VND (roughly 217 million USD). This was the first time in history that the state budget was temporarily advanced into the Fund, amounting to 8.0 trillion VND (roughly 303 million USD) under Decision 483/QĐ-TTg dated March 27, 2026, to supplement the 2026 budget with higher-state-revenue streams to support the Fuel Stabilization Fund.

Tax measures to reduce fuel prices

The Government also deployed multiple fiscal tools. Import taxes were reduced to 0% for certain gasoline products from March 9 to April 30, 2026. Environmental taxes were reduced to 0% for gasoline (excluding ethanol), diesel, and aviation fuels from the night of March 26 to April 15, and special consumption tax on gasoline was reduced to 0% from 00:00 March 26 to April 15, 2026 (instead of 8–10%). Enterprises were exempt from VAT while still remaining eligible to deduct input taxes.

Dynamic price governance to prevent shock accumulation

In governance terms, from March 6, cross-ministry action enabled price adjustments as soon as the base price rose by more than 7%, without waiting for a 7-day cycle. On March 19, Resolution 55/NQ-CP amended Resolution 36/NQ-CP to permit price changes within one day if fluctuations exceeded 15%, aiming to avoid price shock accumulation like in Thailand.

Fuel price movement and counterfactual estimates

By March 26, the price of E5RON92 had fallen to 23,326 đồng per liter, down 6,788 đồng from the March 24 peak—an overall decline of 22.5% within days of the tax measures.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, without the Fuel Stabilization Fund, E5RON92 could have reached 30,180 đồng per liter, RON95-III nearly 33,700 đồng per liter, and kerosene about 38,930 đồng per liter—levels exceeding actual prices by 3,000–5,000 đồng per liter/kg.

Regional comparison and policy implications

Seasia.stats’ data indicate that Vietnam’s price increases were mid-to-low compared with the region, while the Philippines, Myanmar, and Cambodia recorded increases of 50–80%.

Lessons drawn from a relatively balanced model suggest that a flexible combination of stabilization funds, tax measures, and dynamic governance helps protect consumers, maintain macro stability, and avoid long-term budgetary burdens. The advance of the budget for a 12-month period is presented as evidence of fiscal discipline in emergency contexts.

Economists’ assessment

Economists Ngô Trí Long, Lê Quốc Phương, and Nguyễn Quốc Việt said the Ministry of Industry and Trade acted proactively to ensure supply through measures such as adjusting imports, seeking substitutes, regulating supply, and strengthening monitoring to curb hoarding. They urged continued monitoring of international developments and further bolstering of national reserves to be more proactive on energy-supply issues.

They also noted that proactive responses not only stabilize prices for essential goods but also strengthen public and business confidence in the domestic market, supporting Vietnam’s energy security and sustainable growth in 2026 and beyond.