ADB forecasts Vietnam GDP to grow 7.2% this year

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Vietnam’s economy will grow 7.2% this year, despite the impact of the Middle East conflict. At a briefing on April 10, Nguyễn Bá Hùng, ADB’s chief economist, said Vietnam’s growth outlook is supported by flexible and timely policy responses by authorities to the oil-price shock linked to the conflict.

Policy response and inflation outlook

Mr. Hùng said the government has implemented targeted fiscal measures, including tax cuts and the use of the Stabilization Fund, alongside flexible management of gasoline prices. He said these steps help curb near-term inflationary pressures while supporting economic growth.

ADB projects Vietnam’s inflation will be 4% this year. The growth forecast of 7.2% is below the government’s 10% target for 2024, but remains positive compared with 8% growth in 2025.

ADB’s oil-price assumptions

The forecast is based on an assumed Brent crude oil price of around $72 per barrel for this year, followed by about $63 in the next year. At the time of the briefing, Brent futures were around $97 per barrel.

Mr. Hùng said ADB’s oil-price scenario is more optimistic than three scenarios published by the bank last month, which ranged from around $105–$155 per barrel in Q2, tapering as the conflict continues. He added that ADB has not provided a GDP forecast under tougher scenarios, noting that such assessments depend on multiple factors, including government responses.

Regional risks and longer-term recommendations

Regionally, ADB projected that growth across 10 ASEAN economies may fall by 0.6–2.3% in 2026–2027. The bank said these assessments are model-based and do not yet incorporate policy responses to volatility.

In the long run, ADB experts recommended that Vietnam improve energy efficiency, diversify energy sources, and accelerate the shift toward clean energy.

Potential disruptions and trade effects

ADB warned that the prolonged Middle East conflict could continue to disrupt flows of oil, gas, and fertilizer through the Hormuz Strait, raising costs and delaying shipments. It also noted that slower growth among Vietnam’s major trading partners could reduce the trade surplus and dampen Vietnam’s growth.

In addition, ADB flagged uncertainty around US tax policy after 150 days of emergency measures.

Near-term indicators and medium-term priorities

On market conditions, ADB said the PMI is approaching the 50 threshold in March, during the period of the conflict, after remaining elevated in preceding months.

For the medium term, analysts said growth leverage lies in improving public-sector efficiency, attracting private capital, and strengthening economic resilience. The core policy package highlighted includes accelerating institutional reforms, administrative restructuring, optimizing public investment, and strengthening the legal framework.