ADB projects Vietnam's GDP growth at 7.2% in 2026

ADB forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth to 7.2% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027, down from 8.0% in 2025. Growth in 2026 is expected to be driven mainly by accelerating public investment and an accommodative monetary policy. Inflation is projected to rise to 4.0% in 2026, then ease to 3.8% in 2027. According to ADB, higher global oil prices and volatility stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, changes in global supply conditions, and efforts to diversify Vietnam's import sources will add inflationary risk. Industrial growth is forecast to slow to 7.7% in 2026, down from 9.2% in 2025. The services sector is expected to grow about 7.5% in 2026, supported by a tourism rebound and increasing technology-enabled activities. Agriculture growth is projected to stay around 3.6% in 2026, down slightly from 3.8% in 2025. These projections assume a scenario in which the Middle East conflict stabilizes soon but with high uncertainty. The 2026 growth will come largely from stronger public investment and a looser monetary stance. Even as global tensions rise, the manufacturing and export-oriented sectors remain resilient in early 2026, with PMI rising to 54.3 in February, the highest in four months and the eighth consecutive month of expansion, supported by higher output and new orders. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB's Country Director for Vietnam, noted that the government acted quickly to address energy-supply disruptions from the Middle East. Temporary fiscal measures, including tax cuts, use of stabilization funds, flexible price management, and stronger supply coordination helped ease near-term inflation pressures and support growth. In the long term, improving energy efficiency, diversifying supply, and accelerating the transition to cleaner energy will be key to reducing vulnerability to future shocks. Domestic policy stance will bolster resilience: In 2026, trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) will remain important drivers of growth. External headwinds could affect investment inflows and exports. Short-term risks include ongoing Middle East conflict and rising geopolitical tensions that could disrupt markets and global supply chains. Domestic financial risks such as liquidity pressure, rising non-performing loans, and an underdeveloped corporate-bond market could constrain credit growth and raise funding costs. Tariff shocks and policy uncertainty in trade, especially shifts in U.S. tariffs, could weaken global demand and trade and increase investment risk. Nguyen Ba Hung, ADB's Chief Economist, cautioned that growth in 2026 may face more challenges because this year's momentum partly depends on last year's high growth. The global economy is expected to be more difficult and slower, reducing demand for Vietnam's exports. Geopolitical instability could affect oil prices, trade, and transport costs, impacting exports. The Asia region's developing economies and the Pacific are projected to grow at about 5.1% in 2026 and 2027. Nevertheless, timely responses to energy disruptions, including temporary tax cuts, price-management mechanisms, use of stabilization funds, and supply management, along with ongoing energy transition efforts, will bolster resilience and help Vietnam maintain stability. In the near term, reforms to improve institutions, streamline administration, enhance public investment, and strengthen the legal framework will raise the efficiency of the public sector, attract private investment, and increase resilience. Strengthening the corporate bond market and ensuring transparency, a coherent legal framework, and broader participation will be essential to mobilize long-term capital and support sustainable growth. If these reforms are implemented effectively, reforms in this area could position the corporate-bond market as a stable long-term funding source for growth. World Bank projections show 6.3% GDP growth for Vietnam in 2026. GDP growth in Q1 2026 stood at 7.83% amid ongoing Middle East tensions. More than 15 billion USD of foreign direct investment was attracted in Vietnam in Q1 2026.