Assessing demand before building Vietnam–China rail links: Dong Dang–Hanoi and Mong Cai–Ha Long–Hai Phong

Vietnam is studying two railway links with China—Dong Dang–Hanoi and Mong Cai–Ha Long–Hai Phong—but the management agency says planning must first clarify transport demand and investment efficiency to avoid wasting resources.

Demand alignment and investment timing

At a meeting on 09/04, Mr. Nguyen Danh Huy stressed that the planning for both routes must be based on actual demand. He also said the plans should clearly identify the investment timing and the appropriate scale for each project.

According to an initial study report prepared by a Chinese consultancy, the two routes are structured into two development phases through 2040 and 2050.

Dong Dang–Hanoi route: freight and passenger projections

For the Dong Dang–Hanoi route, the peak freight volume is projected at 4.36 million tonnes in the initial phase and 5.45 million tonnes in the long term. Passenger demand is estimated at about 10–15 pairs of trains per day.

The route is longer than 145 km within Vietnam, running from the Nam Dong Dang station area to Gia Lam station. It passes through 11 stations and follows the existing railway corridor. The design speed is up to 160 km/h, intended to serve both freight and passenger services. If the China-connecting segment is included, the total project length is 166 km.

Mong Cai–Ha Long–Hai Phong route: lower freight, higher seasonal passenger demand

The Mong Cai–Ha Long–Hai Phong route is nearly 175 km long and includes 14 stations, passing through many coastal areas. Freight volume is forecast to be lower, at about 0.72–1.02 million tonnes, while passenger demand during peak seasons could reach up to 20 pairs of trains per day.

This route is also designed for 160 km/h and could be upgraded to 200 km/h in the future.

Need for refinement and coordination with other transport modes

The management agency noted that the figures are only initial and require further refinement. Mr. Tran Thien Can, Head of the Vietnam Rail Administration, said the plan must ensure consistency with other transport modes, including roads, seaports, logistics centers, and industrial zones.

The agency highlighted that for distances of around 150–170 km, road transport retains advantages due to flexibility, particularly with door-to-door service. As a result, attracting passengers to rail is not straightforward and would require specific operating scenarios.

Technical and planning issues to be clarified

Beyond market factors, the agency raised technical and planning considerations that must be clarified, including:

• the impact of defense land
• the effect of electrification systems on airports such as Kep, Van Don, and Cat Bi
• land use requirements and cross-border connections

Role in economic and social development

Deputy Minister Huy said the two rail routes must clearly define their role in economic and social development, not only as transport infrastructure but also as a catalyst for development in the areas they pass through. He added that if efficiency cannot be ensured or land is insufficient, local authorities should provide concrete opinions to support decision-making.

Competition and realistic demand forecasts

Mr. Huy also warned that the Mong Cai–Ha Long–Hai Phong route could face strong competition from other transport options, including expressways and low-cost water transport. He said demand forecasts and the expected share of the transport market should be calculated realistically.

Investment scale and track configuration

The final requirement is to determine the investment scale from the planning stage, including whether to build single- or double-track and the implementation timing, to help avoid over-investment or inefficiency.