AstraZeneca faces China headwinds and key drug launches as UBS and Citi back 20% upside

UBS and Citi both reiterated buy ratings on AstraZeneca ahead of the company’s first-quarter 2026 results, scheduled for 29 April. Both brokerages pointed to a pipeline of clinical catalysts as a key part of the investment case, while also highlighting specific areas investors will monitor in the quarter’s numbers.

UBS preview: momentum in key oncology drugs, offsetting pressures elsewhere

In a preview note, UBS said it expects continued strong momentum from AstraZeneca’s major cancer therapies, including Imfinzi, Tagrisso and Calquence.

UBS also flagged potential headwinds for Farxiga, a treatment for type 2 diabetes and heart failure. The bank expects some impact from wholesaler destocking in the US ahead of the drug’s loss of exclusivity (LOE), when generic competitors can enter the market.

China VBP pricing impact

UBS further noted that three AstraZeneca drugs were subject to volume-based procurement (VBP) in China during the quarter. Under the government-mandated pricing process, AstraZeneca chose not to offer price concessions and was therefore excluded from the programme. UBS said this leaves Farxiga, Lynparza and roxadustat facing mandatory price cuts of 20%, 30% and 30%, respectively.

Cost outlook tied to upcoming launches

On costs, UBS expects higher selling and administrative expenses in the first quarter as AstraZeneca prepares for launches of camizestrant and baxdrostat, late-stage drugs targeting breast cancer and cardiovascular disease, respectively.

UBS valuation and target

UBS maintained its buy rating and a 12-month price target of 17,600p, implying upside of around 15% from the current price of 15,274p.

Citi: higher target after model update; confidence boosted by trial developments

Citi took a more bullish stance, raising its price target to £180 from £170 after updating its model for first-quarter developments. Citi also increased its forecast for earnings per share compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2027 to 2030 to 15% from 13%.

Upgrade drivers: camizestrant and tozorakimab

Citi’s upgrade reflects increased confidence in camizestrant following a rival drug’s clinical failure, which Citi said expands the addressable market. The bank also assigned a significantly higher probability of success to tozorakimab, a drug targeting lung disease, after positive headline trial data.

Rating maintained

Citi maintained its buy rating on AstraZeneca.