Bitcoin Bear Market Enters Final Stage as Long-Term SOPR Drops Below 1 and Exchange Deposits Hit 10-Year Low

Two things are happening in the Bitcoin market right now that most people aren’t connecting: one is visible on price charts, while the other is buried in on-chain data and points to a different dynamic. Long-term holders are spending coins at a loss, a pattern that has appeared at the same point in every previous bear market. At the same time, the number of Bitcoin addresses sending coins to exchanges has fallen to a 10-year low.

Long-term holders are realising losses

The long-term holder SOPR (LTH SOPR) metric, which tracks whether long-term holders realise profits or losses when they spend, is currently at 0.96 on its 30-day moving average. Readings below 1.0 indicate long-term holders are spending at a loss. While the yearly average remains positive at 1.71, it reflects historical data rather than the current situation.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said the market is showing a transition in stress: short-term holders have been under pressure for six months, and that pressure is now shifting to long-term holders. Historically, this shift marks the final phase before a cycle turns.

“When LTHs begin to realise sustained losses, it becomes a signal worth monitoring for long-term accumulation,” noted CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

Darkfost also cautioned that the metric can go lower and may remain under pressure for several more months.

Exchange selling activity has dropped to a decade low

In parallel, exchange depositing addresses have fallen to their lowest level in a decade, according to CryptoQuant data. The number of addresses actively sending Bitcoin to exchanges—used as a direct measure of selling intent—has collapsed to levels last seen around 2016.

As of April 8, total exchange reserves were reported at 2.706 million BTC. CryptoQuant data also shows negative netflows every month since February, suggesting that sellers are not building positions on exchanges.

“This is the most dangerous market to be short in right now,” wrote CryptoTice. “Supply drying up. ETF inflows returning. Long term holders refusing to move. When demand meets a market with nothing left to sell – the move is never gradual.”

Why the combination matters

Bear markets often feature both stressed holders and reduced exchange activity. What is unusual here is the degree to which both signals are present simultaneously, and how closely the configuration resembles late-stage patterns seen in 2018 and 2022—periods that were followed by sharp recoveries. The article notes that history does not guarantee repetition, but argues that the current setup matches a familiar shape.

Market snapshot

Bitcoin is currently trading at $72,212, up 7.82% on the week.