Bitcoin price tests bear market trendline near $70,000 as breakout remains possible (April 7 update)

Bitcoin’s price tested the bear-market trendline on Monday, rising as high as $70,400 before being rejected. The move has raised the question of whether BTC is nearing a breakout—or whether the rejection signals another leg lower.

Bulls face resistance near the 6-month downtrend

On the 4-hour chart, BTC is approaching a 6-month trendline that has kept prices moving downward since the all-time high in early October 2025. While some traders may point to a head-and-shoulders setup being invalidated, the article argues that the pattern is not fully negated on higher time frames.

On the daily chart, the neckline is still described as holding as resistance. In addition, the $69,000 level has reportedly reclaimed resistance, adding to the difficulty for bulls to push through.

The article highlights that three bearish elements are converging: the bear-market trendline, the major $69,000 resistance, and the head-and-shoulders neckline. Together, they are characterized as forming a “very strong barrier” that could be difficult to penetrate.

It also notes that short-term momentum indicators are generally moving downward, suggesting bulls may need to wait for a potential down wave to finish and for Stochastic RSI to reset before attempting another breakout.

Daily levels: breakout vs. breakdown risk

The daily chart is presented as showing BTC close to a decision point. The article frames the upside as requiring only “one more short step” for a breakout to begin, but warns that a more significant corrective phase could pressure key support.

If the breakdown develops, the $66,000 horizontal support is described as coming under duress, with a fall to $60,000 cited as a possible outcome.

For a breakout to proceed, the article also says traders should consider the possibility of a retest and confirmation of the trendline afterward, which could bring price back lower before any resumption of the breakout move.

Regarding momentum, the article points to the MACD indicator on the daily chart, noting that the indicator line (blue) has crossed above the signal line (red) and that an initial small green bar has appeared—signals it says are consistent with a bullish move.

Comparisons to prior bear markets

The article compares the current bear market with earlier cycles, asking whether breaking the bear trendline would automatically lead to a sustained move higher. It argues that this was not the case in prior periods.

In the 2018 bear market, BTC rose after breaking the downtrend but then dropped following a rally and entered a long sideways period lasting more than a year before eventually returning above the previous rally high. The article also notes that the Covid crash later pushed the price close to the bear-market low again.

By comparison, it says the 2022 bear market appears to be the closer match to the current one. If that pattern holds, the article suggests a breakout could be followed by a sharp return to the trendline to confirm the move, and then the start of a new bull market.

On the weekly chart, it adds that the MACD appears positioned to signal a trend change, with the blue indicator line crossing above the red signal line.

Bottom line: timing remains uncertain

While the article concludes that conditions appear set for a potential shift, it cautions that market conditions can change quickly and that another downside crash could still occur within a short window. It advises trading with “utmost caution.”

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.