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China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose in March, ending the longest deflationary stretch in decades, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The March PPI increased 0.5% month on month, slightly above Reuters’ forecast of 0.4%.
Prices rose most sharply in energy-intensive sectors. Nonferrous metal mining prices increased 36.4%, while smelting and processing of nonferrous metals rose 22.4%.
Despite the monthly improvement, the broader picture remains subdued. In the first quarter, overall PPI was down 0.6% year on year.
China’s PPI turned up again last month as tensions in the Middle East pushed oil higher, lifting production costs. As of April 10, Brent crude for June delivery traded at $96.70 per barrel, up 33% since the start of the conflict. WTI for May delivery stood at $98.50 per barrel, up 47% over the same period.
From late February, China allowed domestic fuel prices to rise but capped them to mitigate the impact of higher oil prices.
Alongside producer prices, China’s consumer inflation stayed modest. In March, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 1%, below the 1.2% expected by economists surveyed by Reuters and down from 1.3% in February. Core CPI, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, rose 1.1% in March.
Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said China was the only Asian economy among those that had released March inflation data to report a month-on-month CPI decline.
With low inflation and cost-push pressures rather than demand-driven growth, Marco Sun, Head of Financial Markets Analysis at MUFG (China), said Beijing is likely to hold policy steady.
After the inflation data, the yuan and the U.S. dollar were little changed, while mainland stock indices rose.
Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, warned that Middle East tensions remain unsettled and that inflation prospects for many economies, including China, remain in play.
Morgan Stanley said that while China is a major oil importer, large reserves and a diversified energy mix helped cushion the economy from the shock. Robin Xing, China Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, said China has fared better than peers due to flexibility in energy transition and policy space in a low-inflation environment, and he forecast PPI to rise about 1.2% this year.
Morgan Stanley also cut its 2026 China growth forecast by 10 basis points to 4.7%, citing expectations that Brent averages around $110 a barrel in Q2 before cooling. If the Middle East conflict worsens and oil rises above $150, Morgan Stanley said real GDP growth could slow to about 4.2%.
Robin Xing added that even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, supply normalization is likely to be gradual, and restocking demand could keep oil prices elevated.
Source: CNBC, Reuters
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