First-quarter trade picture: building momentum to meet the 2026 export target

Vietnam’s total trade value in the first quarter of 2026 rose by more than 23% to nearly 250 billion USD despite a volatile global economy, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) at its Q1 2026 regular press conference on April 9. The trade balance tilted toward a deficit, which MOIT said is a necessary precondition for firms to accumulate inputs and prepare for the annual export target.

Cause: Global headwinds and domestic recovery

MOIT noted that Q1 2026 began with significant pressures. The global economy grew slowly at around 2.8%–3.0%, while geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East disrupted logistics chains. From March, global fuel prices rose sharply, increasing cost pressures for manufacturers and transporters.

Despite these challenges, Vietnam maintained a positive recovery pace. Industrial production continued to lead, with the national IIP up 9% year on year. The processing and manufacturing sector rose 9.7%. Spillovers from accelerated public investment disbursement also supported sectors including metal production (+22.9%) and non-metal mineral products (+19.7%).

In addition, the PMI for March reached 51.2 points, the ninth consecutive month above 50, indicating ongoing expansion in production and confidence among the business community.

Development: Exports gain momentum

The recovery in production helped drive a strong export performance. Total import-export value in the first three months of 2026 was about 249.5 billion USD, up 23.2% year on year. Exports accounted for 122.9 billion USD, up 19.1%.

By major categories, processed industrial goods remained the backbone at 87.8 billion USD, while agriculture, forestry and fishery products were stable at 9.9 billion USD.

Growth in key markets also reflected Vietnam’s increasing use of trade agreements. Exports to Hong Kong-China rose 47.4%, to China increased 26.4%, and to the United States grew 24.3%.

Data: Import surplus and its “investment” character

A notable feature of the Q1 trade picture was imports reaching nearly 126.6 billion USD, up 27%, which resulted in a temporary trade deficit of about 3.6 billion USD.

Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, said this pattern is not unusual in the production cycle. “Q1 is typically not a strong surplus phase. This is the time when firms boost imports of inputs and accelerate capital expenditure for new projects,” he explained.

He added that imports of electronics components rose 50% in Q1 2026, while machinery, equipment and accessories increased 22%. Energy products for production also rose sharply.

MOIT said the drivers of this year’s import growth are closely linked to the surge in FDI capital in 2025. From this perspective, the import surplus is more “investment” oriented than an imbalance, and is expected to be converted into high-value export products in subsequent quarters.

Impact and outlook: Moving toward “Green Exports”

Alongside the optimistic figures, MOIT highlighted challenges ahead. Domestically, energy security pressures are increasing as peak demand tends to occur earlier. Some grid projects are progressing slowly, and recovery across sectors remains uneven.

Internationally, inflation is leading global consumers to tighten spending, while risks of oil supply disruptions and rising logistics costs are expected to be major obstacles.

To respond, MOIT outlined several measures. In energy, it will operate a flexible power system and accelerate the national energy storage roadmap. In industry, the focus is to restructure supply chains and raise local content to 40%–45% in key sectors such as textiles, footwear and chemicals.

On exports, MOIT said market diversification will be strengthened, including toward promising regions such as the Middle East and Latin America. The ministry also stressed the need to transition toward “Green Exports” and proactively adapt to stricter international standards, including the Border Carbon Adjustment mechanism.

MOIT concluded that Vietnam’s 2026 import-export activity is entering a pivotal transition phase, and that with proactive adaptation by businesses and flexible policy measures by authorities, trade pressures can be turned into momentum to reach new milestones this year.