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Giấy phép số 4978/GP-TTĐT do Sở Thông tin và Truyền thông Hà Nội cấp ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2019 / Giấy phép SĐ, BS GP ICP số 2107/GP-TTĐT do Sở TTTT Hà Nội cấp ngày 13/7/2022.
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U.S. bank Goldman Sachs expects the average crude oil price in the second quarter to fall by about 10% from its prior forecasts, citing a decline in oil risk premiums and improved fuel flows through the Hormuz Strait after a short ceasefire announcement.
On April 9, Goldman Sachs said the risk premium in oil prices had declined and that the flow of fuel through the Hormuz Strait had increased. The update followed a 15-day ceasefire announced earlier this week by the United States and Iran.
Goldman Sachs cut its Brent and WTI forecasts for Q2. It now expects Brent to average $90 per barrel and WTI to average $87 per barrel, down from prior forecasts of $99 and $91, respectively.
During the week, Brent prices fell by about 11% on expectations that Hormuz could reopen after the ceasefire announcement. Prices later reversed as concerns grew that Middle Eastern oil production might not fully recover.
On April 10, Brent rose 2% to $98 per barrel, while WTI rose 2.3% to $100.
AFP, citing maritime-tracking data collected on April 9, reported that only 10 ships had passed through the Hormuz Strait since the ceasefire took effect.
For Q3, Goldman Sachs kept its Brent forecast around $82 per barrel and WTI around $77. For Q4, it expects Brent to average about $80 and WTI about $75.
Despite the lower base forecasts, Goldman Sachs said risks remain tilted toward higher prices, noting the oil market is likely to face prolonged disruption.
In a less favorable scenario—if the ceasefire is not maintained and Middle East oil production remains short by 2 million barrels per day for an extended period—Goldman Sachs projected Brent could rise to $115 by year-end.
The conflict among the United States, Israel, and Iran has lasted more than a month, killing over 3,600 people. The flows of oil, gas, and other commodities through the Hormuz Strait have also been disrupted, and oil prices earlier in the month reached near $120 per barrel, the highest level in four years.
Hà Thu (according to Reuters).
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