Hormuz Strait as a bargaining lever in the US-Iran ceasefire deal

Preserving its central role in global trade, the Hormuz Strait has become a key bargaining lever in Iran’s ceasefire talks with the United States. Markets reacted positively to a two-week ceasefire announced on April 8, with oil prices falling about 15% to 20% that day and major Wall Street indexes rising. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its highest level since April 2025.

Ceasefire terms and Iran’s control of Hormuz

Under the agreement, Iran agreed to reopen the Hormuz Strait during the ceasefire. However, ships passing through would be subject to monitoring by Iran’s armed forces and would have to comply with certain “technical measures.”

S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that four vessels were permitted to pass through Hormuz on April 8 after the announcement. Iran later closed the route, citing Israel’s attack on Lebanon, and announced an alternate route for ships to bypass the main channel to reduce the risk of mines.

CNN reported that by controlling Hormuz, Iran can keep the global economy “hostage.” Kpler analysts said the ceasefire has reinforced Hormuz’s role as both a pressure point and a bargaining chip. Samantha Gross, an energy analyst at the Brookings Institution, said Iran “does not need substantial military power to disrupt the global economy.”

Background: prior disruption and scale of exposure

Before the April 8 ceasefire announcement, Tehran had blocked the Hormuz Strait for more than six weeks—an unprecedented move for a shipping lane that handles about 20% of the world’s oil and a portion of global urea fertilizer. Gross said the situation reflects what energy security analysts have long feared.

The disruption jolted global economies. In Asia, fuel-shortage risks prompted governments to take decisive steps, including the Philippines declaring a national energy emergency. Europe faced surging electricity prices as it emerged from the Ukraine conflict, and even in the oil-rich United States gasoline prices rose.

To alleviate shortages, Washington temporarily waived sanctions on around 140 million barrels of Iranian crude transported by sea.

Negotiation leverage and potential toll system

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay Currency Research, said Iran has consolidated political control and demonstrated the ability to disrupt global oil markets. Dan Alamariu, head of geopolitical strategy at Oxford Economics, added that Iran’s leverage over Hormuz is “enough for the country to secure a ceasefire.”

Observers also pointed to Iran’s 10-point negotiation proposal with the US, suggesting Tehran wants to maintain influence over global economic access to the strait even after fighting ends. Analysts said a toll system for ships passing through Hormuz could become permanent regardless of progress toward reopening.

Tehran has already begun charging tolls in recent weeks, with at least one ship paying $2 million, according to Lloyd’s List. On April 8, Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran and Oman planned to coordinate toll collection. Kpler predicted Oman would act as a neutral intermediary to receive payments and relay them to Iran.

Formalizing toll collection would also align with another core Iranian demand: compensation for economic damage from the conflict. Officials cited by AP said Iran would use the proceeds to rebuild the country.

Market and economic impact

Kpler said shipping and insurance firms would accept paying to pass through Hormuz “faster than policymakers expect,” noting that for most of the Gulf’s export capacity there is no viable alternative route.

From a financial perspective, the tolls’ impact on the world economy was described as modest. Bruegel said, for example, a $2 million toll on a vessel carrying 2 million barrels would raise the price per barrel by about $1. Bruegel added that the burden would not fall on global consumers but largely on Gulf states channeling oil through Hormuz. It said Middle Eastern countries would likely agree to tolls only if other options were worse.

Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s largest producer, welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire but urged that Hormuz remain open “without any restrictions.” President Donald Trump called reopening the strait a top priority, while the White House said on April 8 that Trump also opposes tolls.

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Reporter: Phien An (via CNN, AP)