Omdia: global smartphone market grows 1% in 1Q26 amid rising costs and supply-chain bottlenecks

Global smartphone market shipments grew by 1% year-on-year in 1Q26, according to Omdia’s latest research. The figure does not yet fully reflect the impact of rising supply-side costs, as vendor inventory frontloading in the channel temporarily supported shipments.

Cost pressures and supply-chain friction

Memory and storage costs are increasing sharply, while vendors have not fully implemented retail price increases across all markets. Mobile DRAM and NAND prices rose by around 90% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 and are expected to increase a further 30% in Q2, which would significantly raise bill-of-materials.

At the same time, early signs of logistics and trade flow disruption are adding friction to global supply chains.

“Vendors have little choice but to raise prices as cost pressures intensify”, said Sanyam Chaurasia, Principal Analyst at Omdia.

Vendor performance in 1Q26

Samsung reclaimed the top position in Q1, supported by resilient flagship demand and strong Galaxy S26 series pre-orders. Pre-orders were up more than 10% globally compared with the Galaxy S25 series, despite launch delays that affected its mid-range refresh cycle.

Apple also delivered a strong quarter, supported by stable pricing and steady demand for the iPhone 17 series, despite some regional supply disruptions.

Beyond the top two, most Android vendors are facing challenges on both volumes and margins. Omdia said vendors are responding with tighter portfolios, selective launches and more disciplined pricing.

Within the “Others” category, Huawei’s strong domestic performance—supported by competitive pricing—and HONOR’s continued overseas expansion drove share gains.

Pricing changes are uneven across the market

“Vendors have little choice but to raise prices as cost pressures intensify”, said Sanyam Chaurasia, Principal Analyst at Omdia. “While price increases are happening across the industry, the impact is not uniform. Vendors with greater exposure to entry and mid-tier segments, such as Xiaomi and TRANSSION, are more exposed due to thinner margins and limited pricing power. In contrast, Apple has largely held pricing, while Samsung is taking a more market-selective approach. Beyond headline price increases, vendors are also managing margins through configuration changes, reduced promotions and tighter channel pricing. This is creating a more complex pricing environment, with financing and trade-ins playing a bigger role in supporting demand.”

Outlook: demand shock and downside skew

Omdia said the “worst is still ahead” as cost-driven headwinds weigh on the smartphone value chain. In the near term, higher pricing is creating a demand shock, with consumers delaying purchases, before gradually adapting as pricing stabilises.

Uncertainty around pricing and availability is also prompting some channel partners to increase inventory, which temporarily supports shipments. However, Omdia said this would delay rather than offset the impact for vendors, with pressure expected to intensify as the year progresses.

“The worst is still ahead as cost-driven headwinds weigh on the smartphone value chain,” commented Runar Bjorhovde, Principal Analyst at Omdia. “In the near term, higher pricing is creating a demand shock, with consumers delaying purchases, before gradually adapting as pricing stabilises. At the same time, uncertainty around pricing and availability is prompting some channel partners to increase inventory, temporarily supporting shipments. However, this will delay rather than offset the impact for vendors, with pressure expected to intensify as the year progresses. Vendors will need to focus on margin protection, tighter portfolios and higher-value opportunities while strengthening brand and channel execution.”

2026 shipment forecast

Omdia expects the global smartphone market to be increasingly skewed to the downside in 2026, with shipments likely to decline by around 15% amid escalating costs and macro volatility.