OPEC+ May Raise Oil Output as Weekend Meeting Discusses May Quotas

OPEC+ is expected to discuss whether to raise oil output at a weekend meeting focused on May production quotas, according to a Reuters report citing a well-informed source. The source said any increase could be largely symbolic, with limited near-term impact on actual supply because key members are unable to pump more amid ongoing tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran and the continued closure of the Hormuz Strait.

Weekend meeting to review May quotas

The meeting, scheduled for Sunday, will review OPEC+ production quotas for May. While OPEC+ could decide to increase output, the Reuters source indicated the move may not materially change supply. The reason is that several key OPEC+ producers cannot raise production while disruptions tied to the Hormuz Strait persist.

Hormuz closure tightens supply

The conflict has led Iran to block the Hormuz Strait, a vital sea lane for global oil transport. As a result, oil exports from OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq have been reduced. Even before the conflict, these were the only members in the group capable of meaningfully increasing output.

Other OPEC+ members face additional constraints. Russia, for example, cannot raise production due to Western sanctions and infrastructure damage from its war with Ukraine. In the Gulf, infrastructure damage from missile and drone attacks remains severe, and many officials say restoring normal operations and meeting production targets could take months even if the war ends and Hormuz reopens.

Recent OPEC+ decisions and scale of disruption

In the March 1 meeting, as the war began disrupting flows, OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day for April.

Separately, in March the conflict caused global oil supply to fall by about 12-15 million barrels per day, roughly 15% of total supply—described as the largest disruption in world history.

Oil prices rise amid expectations of action

By the end of last week, WTI crude futures in New York traded around 111.54 USD per barrel, the highest close for the contract since June 28, 2022. Brent crude was around 109.03 USD per barrel.

Prices have continued to climb, though the pace slowed as investors awaited further developments after President Donald Trump issued a fresh ultimatum demanding Iran reopen Hormuz. Trump posted that it would be the day for action against Iran’s facilities and later added that it would be Tuesday at 8 p.m. Eastern time, without further details.

Brent levels reflect tighter near-term supply

White House officials told MS NOW that the timing is a deadline for Iran to reach an agreement with the U.S. Brent rose above 141 USD per barrel, the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis. The level refers to Brent cargoes for delivery in 10-30 days, reflecting supply tightness tied to Hormuz closures.

JPMorgan Chase reported that prices could surpass the all-time high of 150 USD per barrel if Hormuz remains closed into mid-May.

Potential output increase seen as signaling, not immediate supply

According to sources close to OPEC+, a production increase would not immediately affect supply while Hormuz disruptions persist. Instead, it would signal OPEC+ willingness to raise output when Hormuz reopens. Energy Aspects also described the potential increase as “academic” as long as Hormuz disruptions continue.