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UBS remains bullish on Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC ahead of next month’s trading update, despite cutting its target on peer group derating. The bank reduced its price target to 150p from 155p while keeping a buy rating, arguing the shares offer around 18% upside from their current level of 1,278p.
UBS said the adjustment is driven by a derating across its peer group rather than any deterioration in Rolls-Royce’s fundamental outlook. Its earnings forecasts for 2026 through 2028 are described as virtually unchanged.
Ahead of Rolls-Royce’s first-quarter trading statement on 30 April, UBS does not expect the update to provide a meaningful catalyst for the stock in either direction. The bank anticipates a straightforward reiteration of full-year 2026 guidance.
UBS highlighted that engine flight hours (EFH)—a key metric for the civil aerospace aftermarket that supports long-term service revenues—are tracking slightly below prior expectations. EFH is currently running at around 108% of 2019 levels year-to-date, with UBS attributing part of the shortfall to disruption linked to the Middle East conflict.
In response, UBS trimmed its EFH forecast to 115% of 2019 levels for 2026, down from 118% previously. UBS also models a 25 basis point margin headwind from 2028 onwards, alongside a 1% to 2% reduction in aftermarket growth estimates.
Despite these changes, UBS continues to model earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of £6 billion for 2028 and free cash flow of £5.1 billion. The bank said both figures fall within Rolls-Royce’s own guidance ranges.
UBS expects the trading statement to include positive commentary on Defence and Power Systems demand, potential contract wins (including a recent Bundeswehr announcement), and an update on progress with the company’s share buyback programme.

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