Vietnamese stocks eye potential rebound following FTSE Russell upgrade confirmation

Experts said “upgrade information” can support a stock rally and may fit a long-term investment view, but it should be treated only as an additional positive factor rather than the sole basis for decisions.

VN-Index jumps after FTSE Russell upgrade confirmation

On April 8, the VN-Index rose 79 points, the largest absolute gain on record. The move was driven by investor enthusiasm after FTSE Russell confirmed the upgrade path for Vietnamese equities. Trading liquidity also increased to nearly 35 trillion dong, the highest level in about a month.

Market activity differed from the prior period. Since mid-March, liquidity has often been below the USD 1 billion threshold, and some sessions did not even reach 20 trillion dong. Investors stayed cautious, preferring to wait and observe.

Market sentiment turns “explosive”

BSI said the market mood after the upgrade confirmation was “explosive,” with investors becoming more active. In stock-trading groups, many participants expressed enthusiasm and viewed the news as an opportunity to “re-enter” the market.

Nguyen Nam Son of Phu Hung Securities (PHS) said that, considering global macro developments and market valuation (P/E around 14x), participating now remains reasonable. He also pointed to easing geopolitical tensions following a US-Iran truce, which helped reduce market sentiment pressure.

Macro outlook and potential support for Q2 growth

PHS experts estimated that if the next two weeks are managed effectively, macro managers can maintain inflation control and stabilize energy costs at least until July. They said this could support second-quarter GDP growth through three main channels: inflation cooling as energy supply stabilizes; lower logistics costs as shipping rates are not affected by the conflict; and reduced domestic production pressure after earlier high energy costs had restrained the recovery.

Why the rebound could be more sustainable

After more than a month of significant correction, the VN-Index fell from a peak of 1,915 points. Heavyweight groups such as banks and securities faced selling pressure, reflecting risks linked to the Middle East conflict. Against that backdrop, experts said the expected rebound should be more sustainable because current valuations have already absorbed much of the negative factors, while near-term prospects are supported by a less tense macro environment and the upgrade news.

Upgrade story is not new; focus remains on capital flows

Agreeing that the news is positive, Ngo The Hien, deputy director of the Saigon-Hanoi Securities Analysis Center (SHS), said the upgrade narrative is not new. He noted that FTSE Russell’s April 8 decision reaffirmed a notice issued in October 2025 and reflected regulators’ ongoing efforts to facilitate foreign capital flows.

He added that investors’ concerns during the recent period were mainly tied to Middle East conflict developments, the impact of oil prices on macroeconomics, and the direction of deposit rates. In his view, capital inflows would likely broaden only when these factors ease.

SHS: Positive near-term reaction, but avoid FOMO

SHS expects a positive market reaction in the short term. However, it cautioned investors against FOMO (fear of missing out). The upgrade and entry into FTSE Russell index baskets will be implemented in four stages from September 2026 to September 2027, with only a single set of stocks included in the index.

SHS advised investors to weigh multiple factors before allocating funds now, including business performance, financial health, outlook, and valuations.

“The possibility of inclusion in the index upon upgrade should be viewed as a plus in investment decision-making,” He emphasized.

PHS: Distinguish momentum-chasing from value-based participation

Nguyen Nam Son said that in a volatile market, long-term investors should differentiate between “buying into market momentum” and “actively participating at attractive price levels.”

From PHS’s perspective, FOMO becomes most concerning when investors buy after a prolonged rally and push valuations above intrinsic value. At present, he said the overall picture appears to be at an early stage of a sustainable recovery.

Specifically, the VN-Index has moved beyond a trading range of 1,600–1,700 points. SHS and PHS-linked commentary described this as a sign that selling pressure has been absorbed relatively well, while funds are returning cautiously. Several stocks have gained about 10% from their lows, and business results and dividend policies remain attractive.

“Investors should take advantage of accumulating shares at fair valuations rather than waiting for FOMO as the market approaches resistance levels above,” the expert advised.