VN-Index falls sharply; three stocks help PYN Elite limit losses in March

Vietnam’s VN-Index fell 11% in March amid a broad sell-off across sectors, with investor sentiment pressured by rising concerns around the US–Israel–Iran conflict. In comparison, the PYN Elite Fund declined 9.6% over the month, a smaller drop than the market.

March market moves and key drivers

In its March report, PYN Elite said the VN-Index at times dropped as much as 15%, falling below 1,600 points. The move reflected concerns about crude oil supply. The index later recovered about 5% as sentiment improved after the government confirmed the Nghi Son Refinery was operating at full capacity and that supply was secured through May.

The fund also pointed to Prime Minister Pham Minh Chính’s visit to Russia, during which a preliminary LNG agreement was signed, as another factor that helped bolster market confidence.

Fund performance vs. the VN-Index

By the end of March, the VN-Index was down 11% versus the end of February, while PYN Elite’s performance fell 9.6%. PYN Elite highlighted three stocks as portfolio “anchors” that helped limit losses: TCH (+14.5%), HDG (+10.4%) and MIG (+9.2%).

At the same time, several other names fell sharply, including FPT (-19.6%), YEG (-20%) and HVN (-22.8%).

Steepest monthly decline in 2.5 years

PYN Elite noted that the March drawdown is its steepest monthly decline in 2.5 years, larger than last year’s April tariff shock. The drawdown wipes out January gains and drags Q1 2026 performance into negative territory of nearly 4%.

Macro backdrop: growth and investment momentum

Despite the market weakness, the fund said the economy continues to show “bright spots.” Q1 GDP grew 7.8%. March retail sales rose 12.1% year on year, up from 10.4% in the first two months. Exports increased 20.1%, while registered FDI surged 146% year on year and FDI disbursement rose 9.4%. Public investment also increased 45% in Q1.

The PMI eased slightly to 51.2 in March due to higher transport and fuel costs, but remained above 50 for the ninth consecutive month—one of the longest such streaks in Asia.

Company outlook and profit targets

Ahead of the AGM season, many companies announced 2026 business plans with expectations of positive growth. Banks in PYN Elite’s portfolio are projected to raise profits by an average of 22% year on year. HPG targets a 42% increase, while FPT aims for a 15% gain.

Retail segment: DMX and BHX

In retail, the DMX chain targets 20% profit growth, while BHX is expected to rise as much as 140%, supported by a shift from traditional markets to a modern retail model. PYN Elite said DMX has an advantage in expanding market share due to its scale and financial partners supporting a buy-now-pay-later program.

The fund also cited pressured purchasing power from higher electronics prices linked to DRAM shortages. It added that a planned DMX IPO in the second half of 2026 could support MWG’s valuation, alongside tighter ESOP policy and the issuance of additional shares beyond profit guidance.