XRP Price Analysis: Downtrend Intact as Breakout Above $1.36 Remains Unconfirmed

The XRP price is showing early signs of a potential bottoming phase, but the market is not confirming a broader trend reversal yet. The token is trading around $1.31, holding near key support after a weak bounce, with muted price action and inconsistent volume follow-through. At the same time, on-chain data indicates that average trader returns have fallen to -41%, the lowest level since the FTX collapse.

XRP MVRV Hits Extreme Lows, Signaling Value but Not Timing

According to Santiment data, XRP’s 365-day MVRV has dropped to around -41%, placing it deep within a historically defined opportunity zone. This suggests that, over the past year, the average holder is sitting on significant losses—a condition that often appears during late-stage corrections or capitulation phases.

The same data also points to a recurring pattern: when MVRV moves below this threshold, downside risk tends to compress as selling pressure weakens. During the last comparable period around the FTX collapse, XRP later rebounded by more than 60% in the following months.

However, the timing remains unclear. The 30-day MVRV is closer to neutral, indicating that short-term traders are not yet deeply underwater—an important factor that typically precedes stronger reversals. As a result, the setup is mixed: long-term value signals are improving, but short-term conviction is still lacking.

Price Action Stays Bearish as XRP Lacks a Breakout

Despite the improving long-term valuation signals, XRP’s chart continues to reflect weakness. On the 4-hour timeframe, the asset remains inside a descending channel and is trading near $1.31 after rejection near the upper boundary. The structure remains bearish, with lower highs forming below the $1.34 to $1.36 resistance area.

Momentum is also constrained. Price is struggling to build strength above the mid-range of the descending parallel channel. The RSI is holding around 43 to 49, suggesting neutral to weak strength. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a mild bullish crossover attempt but is flattening, which points to fading momentum. Volume has not supported a sustained move higher, implying that recent bounces have not attracted strong buyer follow-through.

Key Levels and Potential Scenarios

XRP is caught between on-chain undervaluation and bearish market structure. A breakout above $1.36 could shift short-term structure and open upside toward $1.45 to $1.55. Conversely, failure to break resistance and a loss of $1.30 support would likely extend downside toward $1.25 to $1.20.

Overall, XRP is entering a historically attractive accumulation zone, with long-term holders already deep in losses—conditions that have previously preceded strong recoveries. Still, until XRP breaks out of its descending channel and reclaims $1.36, the market remains structurally weak.