AAVE price falls below $100 as on-chain reserves rise and Chaos Labs exit weigh on sentiment

AAVE price slips below the $100 level, dropping over 10% today, after a fresh bearish breakdown, as rising exchange reserves and recent developments around Chaos Labs’ exit add pressure to the outlook. The combination of increasing supply on exchanges and weakening price structure points to growing sell-side intent rather than stabilization. Is this the early stage of a bigger crash for AAVE? Exchange Reserves Surge as Distribution Signal Emerge On-chain data is increasingly pointing toward distribution. AAVE exchange reserves have climbed from 2.07 million to 2.23 million tokens, marking a clear reversal from the prior accumulation phase. A significant portion of this supply, around 1.63 million AAVE, is held on Binance, highlighting where liquidity is concentrating. This shift suggests that more tokens are being positioned for potential selling, rather than being held off-exchange. The move above the 90-day average in reserves further reinforces that the market is transitioning into a supply-heavy environment. Chaos Labs Exit Deepens Sentiment Concerns Around AAVE Beyond price and on-chain signals, recent developments within the Aave ecosystem are also influencing sentiment. Reports around the exit of Chaos Labs, along with earlier contributor departures, have raised concerns regarding governance continuity and long-term protocol direction. > JUST IN: CHAOS LABS TERMINATES AAVE ENGAGEMENT AFTER 3 YEARS DUE TO RISK MANAGEMENT announced Monday that it is proactively terminating its engagement with DeFi’s largest lending protocol, citing a fundamental disagreement over how risk should be managed.… [pic.twitter.com/pDeshahsx4] — BSCN (@BSCNews) April 6, 2026 While not immediately reflected in fundamentals, such developments tend to impact market confidence, particularly in DeFi ecosystems. This shift in sentiment appears to be aligning with on-chain behavior, where participants are reducing exposure rather than accumulating, adding to downside pressure. AAVE Price Prediction: Is More Downside Ahead? AAVE’s price action is now aligned with a bearish continuation framework. The loss of the $95–$100 support zone marks a structural shift, with price now forming lower highs and lower lows. Attempts to reclaim this region have failed, turning it into a resistance zone rather than support. This type of behaviour typically signals that the token is not consolidating, but repricing lower within a continuation trend. With price structure weakening, focus now shifts to the next key levels. Immediate support sits near $85, which is currently being tested. A sustained breakdown below this zone could open the path toward $55–$70, where the next major liquidity pocket is positioned. On the upside, $100 remains the critical invalidation level. A strong reclaim above this level would be required to shift momentum back toward buyers. Until then, the token continues to trade with a downside bias. What’s Next for AAVE? AAVE’s token current setup reflects alignment between rising supply, weakening sentiment, and bearish price structure. As long as AAVE price remains below $95–$100, the probability of further downside toward $55–$70 remains elevated. The increase in exchange reserves suggests that sell pressure has not yet fully played out, while the failure to reclaim key levels points to limited buyer conviction.