ACBS Head of Analysis: Market outlook remains positive despite external risks, with attractive investment opportunities

Despite external headwinds, the domestic economy remains positive and the Q1 2026 earnings outlook for listed companies is expected to show double-digit growth, broadly across sectors. In a discussion on The Finance Street Talk Show on VTV8, Do Minh Trang, ACBS Head of Analysis, noted that despite upcoming challenges, supported by economic growth and upgrade prospects, the market will still offer positive opportunities in the medium and long term. When asked about the business picture of listed firms, Trang said Q1 2026 results are expected to be very positive, with growth around 20% year over year. She highlighted positive momentum across sectors: banking with profit growth over 20% YoY; credit growth around 3% from the start of the year and about 20% YoY by end of Q1; NIM remained stable or expanded slightly as lending rates rose. The securities sector is expected to grow more than 40% due to a more than 90% YoY increase in average daily trading value; real estate shows divergence with industrial property up about 10% YoY while residential real estate remains weaker due to tighter credit. Retail, infrastructure, and building materials are also forecast to perform positively in Q1 2026. Oil and gas remained a focal point in March as prices exceeded 100 USD per barrel; upstream profits are less affected due to long-term contracts, while downstream benefits from higher prices, though profitability may not be sustainable if prices fall or supply chains are disrupted. In valuation terms, the VN-Index trades near its five-year median, with large-cap groups likely to post positive Q1 results. The market remains influenced by geopolitical risk and inflation concerns, so investors are advised to pursue a low-risk, value-accumulation strategy, avoiding chasing prices or excessive leverage. Focus should be on stocks with earnings growth resilient to external shocks, such as banks, domestically focused retailers, essential consumer sectors (electricity, utilities), and those linked to public investment. Looking ahead, growth targets of around 10% per year will be more challenging; banks expect 10–35% growth (typically 15–20%), securities firms 20–30%, and leading retailers and steel producers 20–30%. Overall, the outlook is positive but uncertain, suggesting a balanced investment approach for mid- to long-term gains.