Citrini research sends analyst into Strait of Hormuz by speedboat, revealing oil market data gaps

An analyst identified only as “Analyst #3” crossed into Oman’s Musandam Peninsula—an area of rocky coastline that juts into the Strait of Hormuz from the south—despite warnings from Omani border officials and two Coast Guard officers carrying assault rifles.

According to the account, the analyst hired a speedboat with no GPS, captained by a man he had met three hours earlier at a port inlet after paying cash. He then headed into open water, reaching within 18 miles of the Iranian coast while Shahed drones flew overhead and Revolutionary Guard patrol boats operated at distance. The analyst was later intercepted and detained by Coast Guard authorities, whose confiscated his phone before he returned to New York for an “eight-hour debrief,” as described by the firm.

What the data is missing

The firm says the analyst’s findings challenge the prevailing narrative in oil markets. Ships are still moving through the region at roughly 15 vessels per day, with traffic increasing in the days leading up to publication, according to a report cited as coming from Citrini.

The firm argues that the standard AIS ship-tracking system—used to broadcast a vessel’s location, speed, and identity—is undercounting actual traffic. The report states that “tankers passing through four or five a day” are “completely dark on AIS,” and that the volume is higher than what the data suggests. It also says the increase has been accelerating in the past couple of days through the Qeshm channel.

A checkpoint, not a blockade

Rather than a full shutdown, the report says Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is selectively permitting vessels to transit after securing prior approval. Citrini described this as “a functional checkpoint” at what it calls the world’s most important oil artery.

The firm added that the situation is more nuanced than a binary framing. It wrote that its view “doesn’t fit neatly into ‘strait open, crude down’ or ‘strait closed, crude parabolic.’”

The trade and market implications

Citrini’s investment conclusion is that disruption is real but “slow-burning,” not a sudden, all-or-nothing event. The firm said it expects a “permanent risk premium” and projected that traffic could recover to as much as 50% of pre-conflict levels within four to six weeks.

Based on that view, the firm favors longer-dated crude exposure. It prefers December 2026 WTI contracts over front-month contracts, reflecting a bet that the damage will embed into oil prices over time rather than resolve quickly.

Limitations

The firm’s findings are based on a single field trip and anecdotal accounts, which the report notes are difficult to verify independently.