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Jim Cramer, a CNBC market analyst and financial influencer, warned that a sharp surge in oil prices could be followed by a significant stock market crash. In an April 7 post on X, he argued that the ongoing rally in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil does not fit bullish expectations for equities.
Cramer pointed to the scale of the move in WTI, noting that the commodity is up more than 100% year-to-date. He said that rallies of that magnitude have historically been followed by stock market drawdowns of at least 20%.
“West Texas now up 101% for the year. True test as we have never has a stock market go down less than 20% after a 100% rise…Treasurys not complying with bulls either,” he wrote.
Beyond equities, Cramer also said the U.S. Treasury market is not aligning with a bullish narrative. He referenced Treasuries as a benchmark for investor sentiment and broader macro expectations, adding that they are “not complying with bulls.”
Just a week earlier, Cramer said he believed oil rallies were likely to slow down, focusing on Chevron as a leading oil futures-related stock. He suggested that a pullback in the company’s shares could signal a near-term peak in crude prices. Over the past five sessions, Chevron shares have fallen nearly 7%, while oil prices have continued to rise.
Hours before Cramer’s warning, global oil rose ahead of a new deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. At press time, Brent crude was up about 0.5%, trading at $110 a barrel.
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