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Although liquidity in the real estate market may be affected by interest rates, real estate developers with high-use-value projects and attractively valued stocks remain of interest to investors seeking to build positions.
MBS Securities has updated its profit outlook for the real estate sector for Q1 2026, saying it does not expect a broad breakthrough in developers’ profit growth, except in special cases such as recognizing wholesale profits from project sales (VHM) or divestment of project shares (PDR).
In Q1 2026, the real estate market overall and the movement of real estate stocks in particular were subdued, largely due to the high and rising interest-rate environment.
Rising interest rates, together with tighter credit conditions for the real estate sector, have made developers more cautious about launching new projects. At the same time, financial pressures on ongoing projects have reduced buyers’ absorption capacity, particularly for speculative activities or high-leverage demand.
Liquidity remained weak, resulting in modest price adjustments across some real estate segments in Q1 2026. Land prices in Hanoi fell 4% from the end of 2025, while housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City declined 2% over the same period.
Some positive developments are expected to offset part of the impact from higher interest rates. These include increasingly complete and transparent legal frameworks for real estate projects, with new regulations aimed at removing legal obstacles. In addition, progress in implementing public investment projects could raise the projected “use value” of real estate products in surrounding areas.
Signals from the State Bank of Vietnam also point to stabilizing the interest-rate environment, which could support monetary market stability and reduce the likelihood of further rate hikes in the near term. Separately, news that Dong Nai is expected to become the seventh centrally governed city is expected to boost expectations for infrastructure development and investment capital, potentially improving the use value of local real estate products.
Listed real estate companies with large land banks or expansion plans in Dong Nai include NVL (Aqua City project - 1,000 ha), NLG (Izumi City - 170 ha; Elyse Island - 45 ha), DXG (Gem Sky World - 92 ha), DIC (DIC Dai Phuoc - 464 ha; DIC Long Tan - 332 ha), and PDR (two smaller projects of about 4.7 ha).
For listed real estate companies, strong profit growth—where expected—often depends on unusual factors such as recognizing wholesale profits from project products or financial gains from selling project shares.
Other companies are forecast to deliver flat or modestly lower profits year-on-year. The first quarter is also typically not the peak delivery period for real estate projects, which limits expectations for major profit breakthroughs in Q1 2026.
A key point for the real estate stock group is that valuations have fallen below the 5-year average and median, reflecting the business model’s sensitivity to interest rates. If interest rates stabilize and improve liquidity—especially in the physical segment—MBS suggests several stocks may be worth accumulating for the long term, including NLG, KDH, PDR, and DXG.
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