VN-Index Remains on Track to Break Above 2,000 Points Due to Domestic Policy Support

VN-Index is expected to remain in a medium-term trading range of 1,584–2,042 points, implying a swing of -5.4% to +21.9% versus end-March, as Vietnam’s market digests rising external risks and shifting liquidity conditions.

March 2026: Defensive tone, then a modest rebound

As of 31 March 2026, the VN-Index fell 10.9% from the previous month. Trading was largely defensive throughout most of the month, before a modest rebound in the final week. The rebound suggested that “bottom-fisher” buying had not yet been strong enough to fully reverse cautious sentiment.

Liquidity holds up despite the decline

Despite the sizable drop, liquidity did not deteriorate. Average daily transaction value for the VN-Index reached about VND 27.193 trillion per session. This indicates that capital has not exited decisively; instead, it has shifted toward short-term trading, stock rotation, and selective opportunities as risk discounts increased.

Key drivers: Middle East conflict, imported inflation, and tighter near-term liquidity

In March, adjustment pressure intensified as external risk factors rose unexpectedly. The Middle East conflict heightened energy-security concerns, while imported inflation pressure and expectations of tighter short-term liquidity added to market caution.

Heading into April, Dragon Capital Securities (VDSC) said the market had largely priced in a growth slowdown and a high-rate environment. However, the geopolitical shock in the Middle East was approaching a “critical moment” for action.

Global backdrop

VDSC noted that the global asset picture still appears skewed toward a prolonged but controllable shock rather than a broad loss of confidence. Major stock indices declined modestly, the USD strengthened, and bond yields rose as markets priced in less monetary easing.

Impact on Vietnam: Higher inflation pressure and weaker growth impulse

The Hormuz Strait energy shock is expected to heighten inflationary pressure while eroding growth prospects, particularly for energy-importing economies. This dynamic is seen as limiting the near-term rebound in Vietnam’s market.

VDSC also pointed out that the outlook is not entirely negative. In the US, inflation pressures, war costs, and political time constraints are likely to limit the extent of an extended conflict rather than trigger rapid escalation.

Vietnam policy focus: Growth with macro stability

For Vietnam, policy direction is described as clearer toward supporting growth without compromising macro stability. VDSC cited efforts to improve institutions, reduce policy lag, and maintain balance in monetary policy—factors viewed as important for sustaining mid-term market expectations.

Near-term earnings outlook and sector opportunities

In the near term, the Q1 2026 earnings outlook remains positive, supported by domestic demand and the investment cycle. Strength is expected in banks and retail. VDSC also said sectors linked to commodity prices or geopolitical shifts may deliver surprises relative to the broader market.

VDSC view: Range-bound market, ongoing volatility

VDSC expects VN-Index to stay within 1,584–2,042 in the medium term, with the -5.4% to +21.9% variation versus end-March. The market is not viewed as ready for a rapid rebound, but gains could resume if “wind” from de-escalation of geopolitics, energy stability, and improved domestic policy effectiveness materializes.

Even with some risks already priced in, VDSC expects continued volatility driven by Hormuz developments. It advised that near-term cash should prioritize capital preservation—avoiding chasing stocks rallying on war-related headlines—and exercising caution with groups that benefit only temporarily from energy-price shocks or transport disruptions, as fundamentals could reverse quickly if tensions ease.

Longer-term strategy: Selective accumulation

Over the longer run, VDSC said the current correction may create opportunities to accumulate for leading companies with solid financials, clear competitive advantages, and growth prospects over the next 2–3 years that are not eroded by short-term volatility.

Investors were advised to prioritize selective deployment into blue chips and leading sectors when valuations return to attractive levels amid macro risks.

Portfolio changes and preferred picks

In this update, VDSC raised weights in banks, retail–consumption, and near-term story stocks, while trimming exposure to highly cyclical groups.

• Banks: Emphasis on growth tied to asset quality, with MBB, CTG, and VCB as preferred picks.
• Retail–consumption: MWG, DGW, and MSN were increased on expectations of solid Q1 results, reflecting consumption recovery and expansion of modern distribution channels.
• Real estate: Focus shifts to firms with healthy balance sheets, low debt, and clearer profit turning points, prioritizing TCH and KDH.
• Other sectors: The stance on seafood, infrastructure, transport, and industrial zones remains constructive, with picks including ANV, ACV, CTI, PVT, PHR, and KBC.

VDSC said this group combines growth momentum with a more defensive posture in a market that is expected to remain uncertain.