SSI Research and FTSE Russell identify 30 potential stocks likely to attract capital as Vietnam edges toward Emerging Market status

SSI Research has released an updated outlook on Vietnam’s stock market upgrade, incorporating expert input from FTSE Russell. The report says Vietnam is on track to be upgraded to Emerging Market status by FTSE in 2026, with an MSCI upgrade expected to be the next medium-to-long-term milestone.

FTSE upgrade timeline and expected passive inflows

SSI Research expects Vietnam to pass FTSE’s mid-year review, scheduled to be announced on the morning of April 8, 2026. If the upgrade proceeds, the report anticipates Vietnam will begin attracting capital from passive funds from September 2026.

Estimated passive fund inflows into Vietnam could reach US$1.7 billion. SSI Research notes these inflows are unlikely to be deployed in a single tranche; instead, they are expected to be spread over three to five tranches, similar to the structure seen during Saudi Arabia’s upgrade in 2019. Each tranche is expected to be deployed on a quarterly cycle to reduce market disruption.

Stocks likely to attract Emerging Market flows

SSI Research lists the following as potential beneficiaries of Emerging Market (EM) flows: VIC, SSI, MSN, VCI, KBC, DGC, VND, HCM. The watchlist also includes BSR, SAB, HUT, PDR, DXG.

The list has been updated as of March 20, 2026.

Evidence from prior Frontier-to-EM transitions

SSI Research also conducted a study comparing the profitability of stock markets in countries that moved from Frontier Market to Emerging Market. The findings indicate these markets typically deliver superior mid-term returns.

Sector outlook: beneficiaries and key themes

Banking as the primary beneficiary

SSI Research flags the banking sector as the main beneficiary. It expects double-digit profit growth in 2026, supported by steady credit demand, a return to a stable net interest margin after a sharp drop in 2025, and asset-quality pressures kept under control.

Within banking, SSI Research prioritizes CTG and MBB for positive growth potential. VCB is described as a defensive pick for 2026 due to its cautious business model and superior asset quality.

Consumer

The consumer sector is forecast to maintain positive growth, supported by network expansion that increases market share and supportive policies, including a higher personal income tax threshold effective from January 2026. However, the report notes that higher oil prices could weigh on consumer spending sentiment.

Materials and construction

Companies in materials and construction are positioned to benefit from robust construction activity, which supports demand for building materials and enables producers to pass input-cost increases to selling prices. Hoa Phat Group (HPG), a steel producer, is also expected to benefit from new anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel imports from China enacted recently, alongside a rebound in global steel prices.

Information technology

Tech stocks such as FPT could see a rebound in 2026 after a relatively subdued 2025, as valuations have become more attractive.

Industries benefiting from a higher interest-rate environment

SSI Research highlights sectors that may benefit from the higher interest-rate environment. It points to positive momentum for insurers and state-owned enterprises with ample cash holdings, enabling them to take advantage of higher yields. The report specifically mentions oil and gas, fertilizers, and consumer goods, where companies are described as having strong balance sheets and sufficient cash.

Market performance and near-term pressure

The report says the market remains positive and has approached the 2026 base-case target of 1,920 points in the first two months. It notes that March has brought profit-taking pressure amid concerns about rising domestic rates and global geopolitical tensions.

Outlook drivers and potential capital rotation

Looking ahead, SSI Research expects both structural and cyclical drivers to support the market, including a two-digit GDP growth target. Vietnam aims for roughly 10% average GDP growth per year over the next five years.

Infrastructure development is identified as a key growth driver, supported by large-scale investments in transportation, energy, and urban projects. SSI Research says these initiatives provide short-term stimulus while improving long-term productivity.

On the currency front, the report expects FX market pressure to ease compared with prior years as the VND/USD gap narrows.

SSI Research also notes that relative attractiveness versus other investment channels may improve for equities. It cites cooling in real estate and gold markets, along with tighter government oversight of the crypto sector, as factors that could redirect domestic capital into stocks.

Upcoming IPOs

Finally, SSI Research expects upcoming IPOs of Highlands Coffee, CP Vietnam, DienMayXanh, HDBS, and LPBS to add new supply and attract further investor interest, helping diversify investment opportunities and deepen market depth.