List of 26 stocks expected to benefit from FTSE Russell upgrade of Vietnam's stock market

In the early hours of 8 April, FTSE Russell officially announced that Vietnam will be upgraded to a Secondary Emerging Market, effective 21 September 2026. At 3:00 a.m. Hanoi time on 8 April 2026, FTSE Russell published the mid-cycle results of the market classification review for March 2026.

FTSE Russell’s notice highlights progress related to access to Vietnam’s market through global brokerage firms. It also formally confirms the plan to upgrade Vietnam from Frontier Market to Secondary Emerging Market, originally announced in October 2025. The upgrade will be implemented in stages to support an orderly transition, manage capital inflows, and maintain the operation of the NPF mechanism throughout the transition.

Estimated passive inflows and how they may be deployed

Based on the total assets of certain ETFs as of 03/04/2026 that use FTSE EM & All-World indices as benchmarks, VPBankS estimates that passive fund inflows into Vietnam could reach around $1.7 billion once the full transition is completed, excluding inflows from active funds. VPBankS also notes that the estimated total assets from active funds are five times those of the ETFs, according to FTSE.

The estimated passive inflows are not expected to be deployed in a single tranche. Instead, they are more likely to be distributed over three to five tranches on a quarterly basis to minimize market disruption, similar to the approach seen in Saudi Arabia’s upgrade in 2019. Each tranche is expected to be implemented in cycles to reduce market volatility.

Foreign ownership headroom and implications for passive tracking

Foreign selling pressure has created room for foreign ownership in large-cap, highly liquid stocks. By early April 2026, foreign ownership in most stocks in the FTSE Vietnam Index was significantly below the cap. Real-world data cited in the report show that only 4 of 31 constituent stocks have foreign ownership around 50% of the maximum, indicating substantial remaining headroom.

As a result, passive funds tracking the FTSE Emerging Index are considered unlikely to be constrained by foreign ownership limits.

What past upgrades suggest about capital flows

According to Bloomberg statistics, most markets tend to see strong foreign capital inflows following an upgrade, regardless of whether the change is based on FTSE or MSCI criteria. The data indicate that inflows typically rise by 5–7 times the pre-upgrade average.

The report points to China’s experience as an example: A-shares were included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2018, during a period that later saw near-10-year slower growth before US–China trade tensions. Those tensions coincided with foreign outflows of over $11 billion, followed by net inflows of more than $132 billion in the subsequent year.

Beneficiary stocks and watchlist

The report lists potential beneficiary stocks for EM-related flows as: VIC, VHM, HPG, FPT, SSI, MSN, VCB, VNM, VJC, VIX, STB, VRE, SHB, SHB, GEX, VCI, KDH, KBC, BID, NVL, DGC, EIB, PDR, DXG, DIG, DPM.

It also notes that stocks likely to attract EM flows include: VIC, SSI, MSN, VCI, KBC, DGC, VND, HCM. Additionally, a watchlist includes: BSR, SAB, HUT, PDR, DXG.

Analysis: upgrade as a catalyst, but macro factors remain decisive

Historical data across markets that have previously been reclassified from Frontier to Emerging suggest that the upgrade does not automatically translate into sustained growth, with macro factors often playing a larger role. The report characterizes the FTSE EM upgrade as a supporting factor and an important catalyst for attracting capital, while market direction remains dependent on broader macro conditions.

Separately, SSI Research’s studies comparing stock market performance after moves from Frontier to Emerging indicate that these markets typically deliver mid-term outperformance.