Steel prices continue to rise in Q2 2026

Domestic steel prices broadly rebounded in early 2026, with construction steel leading the gains, up about 10% from the start of the year. By contrast, hot-rolled steel rose only modestly in late March. The Q1 2026 uptrend was mainly driven by cost-push pressures, as coking coal and iron ore costs increased by 3% and 4% respectively from the beginning of the year, while freight costs stayed elevated due to higher oil prices.

VDSC outlook: clearer recovery expected from Q2 2026

In an industry outlook update, Dragon Vietnam Securities (VDSC) expects the steel sector to recover more clearly from Q2 2026. The brokerage cited two main drivers: the broad Chinese steel investigation results and the peak construction season.

China probe into wide-width hot-rolled steel

On Oct 27, 2025, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Decision No. 3176/QĐ-BCT, officially launching an anti-dumping and anti-circumvention probe into hot-rolled steel products of Chinese origin with wide widths from 1880–2300 mm (case code AC03.AD20).

The decision followed a surge of low-priced wide-width Chinese steel entering Vietnam from early 2025 to evade antidumping duties on narrow-width steel (AD20). Customs data show that in the first seven months of 2025, imports of this wide-width product reached 832 thousand tons, up 18-fold from the same period in 2024.

VDSC noted that the official results are expected to be announced within one to two quarters. The expectation is that products under review will face duties levied at a rate equivalent to the current tariffs on hot-rolled narrow-width steel.

Short-term impact: hot-rolled input supports galvanized margins

Although hot-rolled coil is an input for galvanized steel, VDSC said the development remains positive for the sector in the short term. The brokerage pointed out that galvanized product selling prices have room to rise to offset cost-push effects, and that gross margins for galvanized steel typically improve when hot-rolled coil prices rise due to pre-existing inventory.

Construction steel demand: growth led by HPG

Construction steel consumption grew positively, with a two-month cumulative volume of 2.5 million tons (+39% YoY). Domestic demand accounted for most of the increase at 2.2 million tons (+52% YoY).

HPG remained the leading player with 887 thousand tons sold (+29% YoY), representing a market share of 36% (down 2 percentage points year-on-year).

Hot-rolled coil: strongest growth, supported by HPG and Dung Quat 2

Hot-rolled coil recorded the strongest growth, reaching 1.4 million tons (+214% YoY), with contributions from both export and domestic markets. VDSC attributed much of the consumption growth to HPG, with two-month total sales of 906 thousand tons (+82% YoY). This lifted HPG’s market share to 63% (from 47% YoY), supported primarily by the Dung Quat 2 plant operating at about 60% capacity.

Formosa, by comparison, recorded flat output at 540 thousand tons.

Tin-plated/galvanized: demand declines continue

Tin-plated/galvanized steel demand continued to decline year-on-year to 614 thousand tons (-22% YoY). The weakness was linked to export channels at 180 thousand tons (-45% YoY), while domestic channels fell slightly by 6%. Sales by leading producers declined year-on-year: HSG (-24%), NKG (-30%), and GDA (-13%).

In market share terms, overall consumption shifted slightly away from HSG and NKG (down to 27% (-1pp) and 14% (-1pp)) toward GDA (up to 18%, +2pp YoY).

Pipe steel: flat overall, HPG gains share

Pipe steel consumption was flat at 409 thousand tons, with exports offsetting a minor domestic decline. HPG’s pipe sales rose 17% YoY to 144 thousand tons, helping the company lift its market share to 35% (+5pp). HSG’s pipe sales were 52 thousand tons (-15% YoY), with market share down to 13% (-2pp).